Disbeliever!
Actually, I remember hearing last year when Valve said they were shooting for end of September. We all know what happened after that.
But this time it's Vivendi that's driving the Nov 16 date. I tend to belive the publisher more, since it'll be their butt on the line if it's late. Since the gold master went to Vivendi about a month ago (same as Release Candidate), I trust that all is well.
I'd be willing to bet my Cure "Join the Dots" collection on it. That's somewhere between "I'd bet a penny" and "I'd bet my car", but more towards the "I'm pretty sure" and nothing like "I'd bet a million dollars".
In the meantime, why not play CS:Source? You can watch the tires roll down the hill, wobble, and tip over. Over shoot big barrels, milk jugs, and more. It's weird how the wooden crates still don't explode though...
-ner